A real-time simulation of the trajectory and fate of spilled oil at sea

Abstract

On the basis of the physical modeling of the trajectory and fate of spilled oil at sea, an integrated computer program was developed for the real-time prediction of spilled oil behavior. The trajectory model describes the movement of the surface spill center of mass, and the trajectory is mainly governed by the velocity of the wind and the surface current. For the fate model, weathering effects of spreading, evaporation, emulsification, and shoreline interaction are included. The Windows-based GUI has a flexible preprocessor that enables one to use measured field data as well as numerically generated data. For the real-time prediction, environmental data are stored in the database. The database on tidal and oceanic currents is produced by solving a Navier-Stokes equation based on the IAF finite difference method. The measured data are used for both the boundary condition of the governing equation and the calibration of the generated current field. An oil spill accident in the south coastal region of Korea is simulated and compared with the observed data. The simulation result indicates that the developed oil spill model gives a reasonable estimation of the route of spilled oil. Further improvement of the environmental database is required for the accurate prediction of spilled oil behavior.