항로에서의 항행안전성 평가를 위한 시뮬레이션 조건 설정에 관한 연구

Abstract

Ship-handling simulation system has been widely used for maritime traffic safety assessment for harbor and fairway design. A lot of environmental conditions would be considered under which ship may navigate along a fairway or in harbor. Due to time and budget limitations, however, ship-handling simulations can usually be carried out for very limited number of environmental conditions. In this paper, statistical methods for effective and systematic selection of real time simulation conditions using fast time simulation results is suggested and applied to the maritime traffic safety assessment problems as an empirical study. The extreme environmental conditions under which the ship is expected to experience most difficulty and the conventional environmental conditions under which the ship is expected to have most risk are determined, respectively. The principal component analysis method for calculating a single index of navigational difficulty and the concept of empirical cumulative distribution function for selecting some simulation conditions which would impose high difficulty and high risk on ship-handling are suggested.