Effect of Ship Motion Prediction Model on Navigational Safety

Abstract

In this study, the effect of the motion prediction model (MPM), which is a ship behavior prediction model that predicts and provides short-term motion by analyzing ship location information and motion characteristics in real time, on navigational safety was studied. The electronic chart system (ECS) was installed with the MPM on a ship to connect with sensors such as those of the global positioning system (GPS), automatic identification system (AIS) plug, and real-time kinematic (RTK) for logging the real-time location and dynamic information. The MPM predicts the future motion and position of a ship by calculating the logging data, and it was verified that the motion of the ship predicted by the MPM and the actual navigation were very similar. In this study, the nondimensionalized length over all (LOA) was analyzed and found to have an average of 0.0713, confirming that the value predicted by motioning an actual operation was very accurate. In addition, as a result of the user satisfaction survey of the MPM, the adjective rating scale defined by the system usability scale was evaluated to be good, which was verified as convenient to use. In the case of the effectiveness analysis of the MPM by an expert group, it was found that 56.17% of the maritime accident factors alleviated the risk by 80% and that 20.8% of the factors alleviated the risk by 100%. Through this study, it was found that the result of analyzing the movement of individual ships and predicting their motion is an important impact factor for preventing ship collisions. In the future, the MPM is expected to enhance the operational safety of ships operated by self-pilotage, such as cargo ferries and passenger ships, which are less regulated by governments.