파랑예측모형에 의한 해황 예보의 유효성 분석 - 한진 인천호 침몰사고에 대한 정밀파랑추산 -

Abstract

In order to improve navigational safety of ships, an ocean wave prediction model with high precision and short computing time was introduced for the establishment of ocean wave forecasting system on ships. The model simulates multi-directional random waves using the information of sea surface winds encountered at the planned ship's course. We verified a validity of the model by investigating a sea disaster of Hanjin-Incheon vessel occurred by a stormy weather in 1987. We analyzed the sea surface winds and carried out ocean wave hindcasting simulations along a route of the vessel. The simulated result reveals that the sea disaster was caused by rapidly developed low pressure system in Okhotsk Sea and the predicted wave characteristics by the third generation wave prediction model(WAM) agreed well with the observed significant wave height, wave period and directional wave spectrum. It proves a good applicability of suggested wave prediction model to a practical on-board calculation system.