On the Assessment of Collision Probability from Maritime Traffic Flow Survey Results

Abstract

Maritime traffic safety assessment has been enforced by law in Korea since 2010. Any construction plan which may influence maritime traffic safety should be assessed from shiphandlers’ view points before its implementation. Among the quantitative assessment items, there is collision probability of own ship with fixed obstacle, such as breakwater, bridge pier or fairway limit. The probability may be assessed for grounding in case of restricted water area. The collision or grounding probability is usually assessed based on the assumption that the distribution of ship trajectories across fairway follows Gaussian distribution. Another assumption to test is whether the time interval between two consecutive arrivals of ships at some position of fairway would follow Poisson distribution, which is important when generating ships in maritime traffic flow simulation technique. In this paper, these kinds of basic assumptions have been checked from the maritime traffic flow survey results.uantitative assessment items, there is collision probability of own ship with fixed obstacle, such as breakwater, bridge pier or fairway limit. The probability may be assessed for grounding in case of restricted water area. The collision or grounding probability is usually assessed based on the assumption that the distribution of ship trajectories across fairway follows Gaussian distribution. Another assumption to test is whether the time interval between two consecutive arrivals of ships at some position of fairway would follow Poisson distribution, which is important when generating ships in maritime traffic flow simulation technique. In this paper, these kinds of basic assumptions have been checked from the maritime traffic flow survey results.